I think it's really anybody's game at this point. In a few years, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the Wii the uncontested ruler of Japan, and the PS3 and Xbox 360 pretty much neck and neck over here. The one year advantage for Microsoft, and a considerably lower price point, is going to make it much, much more difficult for Sony to catch up. Assuming they are able to retain third party support, which is likely, and they release enough exclusive stuff like Metal Gear Solid 4, Final Fantasy XIII, etc., I think they'll do well. Who knows? I, for one, would like to see Sony kicked off their high horse.