Mafia XXXII - BSG Mafia Game Thread - Day Four: Blood and Chrome (Town Victory)

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

The Old Man again. I was - and still am - suspicious as hell of you, and I didn't have much of a read on Felix or Aaron at the time. Adama voted with me the last couple of times and, like I said before, I'll take some pretty serious persuading before I accuse the old man of being my enemy. I've served with or under him for thirty frackin' years.

I pretty much forgot Helo existed, so I didn't even consider him. And hell would've frozen over before I considered lending Gaius Baltar my protection, even if he was the patron saint of riches and tequila.

Frankly I expected last night to be my last, so it was a bit of a shot in the dark. The old man was the only vaguely sensible option.

[[M] Adama]

I can't even begin to fathom why Roslin would have moved their vote to where they did even if they weren't at the top of the lynch list. Gaius wasn't sitting right with me. Anyway.

You don't get in my position by just trusting everyone, so as much as Tigh talks a good game right now, I have to wonder about the increasingly likely chance that we have two dueling mafia teams with the same PRs for each.

Some of these ideas probably have big holes in them. Look them, analyze them, and let's get some feedback.

Scenario A) There's two dueling mafia teams, each with a one-shot doctor and a two-shot watcher. Meaning one team is completely gone and one has only a Doctor left. This would potentially put Tigh on a short list. It would also mean, if he's at least partially telling the truth, that he may have used up his ability. Considering we've lost a mafia every night, maybe he hasn't.

Scenario B) There's one mafia team with 3 people, 2 two-shot watchers and 1 one-shot doctor, and they all vote a consensus on who to kill each night. The other team is a lone mafia godfather who has managed to keep attention off of themselves while single-handedly decimating the other team. (Seems like a stretch.)

Scenario C) We have one mafia team and they are all 1 or 2 shot versions of different mafia PRs. That means we probably only have the godfather left. They've been trying to find town's PR role that keeps eliminating them, but they're struggling to get around a town doctor and a town vigilante who have been just kicking ass. Obviously this would mean the town PRs are not just one or two shot variants of their roles. If that's the case, what are the odds the godfather has any additional abilities?

[[M] Felix]

If he was a town doc he would be dead. He's still alive. Aaron can track him if you kill me today, I bet he shows up at the door of the next dead player. If aaron dies, it's because said "doc" refused to heal him.

This argument seems pretty compelling. He's the only person whos claimed doctor, and it seems to reasonable to assume that the remaining Cyon is a doctor, considering that there's been two Cylon watchers. And if Tigh were a human doctor, why didn't the mafia target him last night? It's a risk lynching him, as he's the only confirmed Doctor - if he is town, we'll be shooting ourselves in the foot, and as anyone who's watched the show knows, I hates losing a leg -, but to me there aren't any other clear mafia candidates right now.

##Vote: Tigh

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

And if Tigh were a human doctor, why didn't the mafia target him last night?

Well, because they don't have to, apparently. Why waste a night kill when you can just rely on good old Felix to frack everything up during the day?

That was unfair of me, you're only proving yourself incompetent if you're town, which I am doubting more and more with every word out of your mouth. Interesting how you didn't see fit to any dress any of the possible reasons for my survival that I mentioned earlier. Because they sure as hell would be interesting to discuss. Where are the other town power roles? Did we really only have an Inventor who died day 1? Why don't you tell us your role, Felix? I'd love to hear what you've been up to.

[[M] Felix]

Tigh, I don't find your arguments for your survival convincing. Of course mafia would take out a confirmed town doctor as soon as possible. There's no good reason for them not to.

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

Tigh, I don't find your arguments for your survival convincing. Of course mafia would take out a confirmed town doctor as soon as possible. There's no good reason for them not to.

So you're either a toaster or you have a chronic failure of the imagination. First of all, I'm not a 'confirmed' town doctor, I'm a 'claimed' town doctor. But maybe I'm actually a jester and by killing me I win the game?

So then, if you don't believe I am the doctor, why don't you give us your hypothesis why no one from town died on night 2? I'd love to hear it. Were the toasters all just...recharging that night, perhaps?

[[M] Felix]

Mafia not killing to try and throw suspicion on town isn't unheard of. And yes, you're right that you're not confirmed, just claimed. But honestly, I don't see why a town who wasn't a doctor would claim to be one, it just makes you a target. The only good reason you would lie about being a doctor is if you're mafia.

If you are a doctor, then you're probably mafia, because I don't see any good reason why mafia wouldn't have targeted you by now. If you're lying about being a doctor, you're probably mafia. Either way, you're probably mafia. My vote stands.

[[M] Adama]

Tigh, I don't find your arguments for your survival convincing. Of course mafia would take out a confirmed town doctor as soon as possible. There's no good reason for them not to.

Scenario C) We have one mafia team and they are all 1 or 2 shot versions of different mafia PRs. That means we probably only have the godfather left. They've been trying to find town's PR role that keeps eliminating them, but they're struggling to get around a town doctor and a town vigilante who have been just kicking ass. Obviously this would mean the town PRs are not just one or two shot variants of their roles. If that's the case, what are the odds the godfather has any additional abilities?

Except for this bit right here. The scenario of one mafia team means they can only target one person a night. It seems like a possible vigilante could be decimating their ranks, and they've perhaps tried to target that person instead of the possible doctor.

Even if he is a mafia doctor, he could still be protecting himself from night lynches while a vigilante/whatever PR is allowed to run amok.

Gaius visited Helo (I assume to night kill?) and also visited Tigh, presumably to watch them and see if they're really the doctor? Or perhaps they thought he was a second mafia? I don't really know what to think just yet.

Assuming Aaron is telling the truth, this is interesting. And as for Dee.

I do believe we have two identical mafia teams now. D'anna was a two shot mafia watcher. Gaius was a two shot mafia watcher. Athena was a one shot mafia doctor. I'm willing to bet our last mafia member is a one shot doctor as well. And we all know who the doc claim is...

If he was a town doc he would be dead. He's still alive. Aaron can track him if you kill me today, I bet he shows up at the door of the next dead player. If aaron dies, it's because said "doc" refused to heal him.

Which is important. You'd assume if Tigh is a one shot doctor, and the other team didn't know this, that he'd be dead by now. The only way I can see him being alive is if he's a town doctor with unlimited heals, he's used up his one shot heal and the other mafia all died before they could get him, or he's just some how been a luckily ignored one-shot mafia doctor with their one heal left.

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

Mafia not killing to try and throw suspicion on town isn't unheard of. And yes, you're right that you're not confirmed, just claimed. But honestly, I don't see why a town who wasn't a doctor would claim to be one, it just makes you a target. The only good reason you would lie about being a doctor is if you're mafia.

If you are a doctor, then you're probably mafia, because I don't see any good reason why mafia wouldn't have targeted you by now. If you're lying about being a doctor, you're probably mafia. Either way, you're probably mafia. My vote stands.

So if I'm telling the truth I'm mafia, and if I'm lying I'm mafia. That's some top quality reasoning right there Felix.

And you still continue to ignore the problem of night 2. Why. Did. All. Town. Survive? Can you think of any good reason for that other than a town doctor?

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

Oh wait, you did address night 2. You just addressed it in such a hand-waiving, unconvincing way I legitimately didn't realise you were talking about it.

Mafia not killing to try and throw suspicion on town isn't unheard of

Really? That's what you're going with? The toasters have a free reign to murder one of us in the night with no direct consequences, and you think that 'they just didn't do it to cast suspicion'. OK, and who exactly were they casting that suspicion on? All their inaction achieved was either making people less suspicious of Roslin (town), or more suspicious of me because they thought I was in cahoots with Roslin.

But seeing as she turned town when she threw herself out the airlock there was no one for me to be in cahoots with.

I was gunnin' for Dee the day after, maybe the inaction on night 2 was to trick people into believing there's a doctor protecting Roslin and then persuade everyone to lynch Dee? But then... why not just use the 1-per-night free murder to kill Dee rather than this pointlessly elaborate ploy?

[[M] Felix]

You can protest all you like, but the fact is that you gave an unforced role claim as doctor really early, despite the fact that, if you were town, it would make you a prime night-kill target. And somehow, despite your role claim, mafia didn't target you. Why wouldn't they target a town claiming doctor? It just doesn't make sense.

I'm more convinced than ever that you're mafia. I will eat my prosthetic leg if you turn out not to be mafia.

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

I'm more convinced than ever that you're mafia. I will eat my prosthetic leg if you turn out not to be mafia.

Once again, you ignore a vital clue - the lack of a death on night 2 - because it doesn't fit your narrative. I sure hope you're a toaster, because otherwise you're just incompetent and we're all dead anyway.

If you do succeed in killing me today, just allow me to say in advance: bon appétit.

[[M] Felix]

The lack of a death on night two doesn't prove anything, despite your repeated insistence that it does. I feel that my evidence of your too-early role claim and lack of being targeted far outweigh a single night where no town died.

[[M] Dee]

##unvote

I'll be back to address some of the stuff I've seen, but I don't want tigh hammered right now even though I still don't think he's in the clear.

[[M] Dee]

I can't even begin to fathom why Roslin would have moved their vote to where they did even if they weren't at the top of the lynch list. Gaius wasn't sitting right with me. Anyway.

You don't get in my position by just trusting everyone, so as much as Tigh talks a good game right now, I have to wonder about the increasingly likely chance that we have two dueling mafia teams with the same PRs for each.

Some of these ideas probably have big holes in them. Look them, analyze them, and let's get some feedback.

Scenario A) There's two dueling mafia teams, each with a one-shot doctor and a two-shot watcher. Meaning one team is completely gone and one has only a Doctor left. This would potentially put Tigh on a short list. It would also mean, if he's at least partially telling the truth, that he may have used up his ability. Considering we've lost a mafia every night, maybe he hasn't.

Scenario B) There's one mafia team with 3 people, 2 two-shot watchers and 1 one-shot doctor, and they all vote a consensus on who to kill each night. The other team is a lone mafia godfather who has managed to keep attention off of themselves while single-handedly decimating the other team. (Seems like a stretch.)

Scenario C) We have one mafia team and they are all 1 or 2 shot versions of different mafia PRs. That means we probably only have the godfather left. They've been trying to find town's PR role that keeps eliminating them, but they're struggling to get around a town doctor and a town vigilante who have been just kicking ass. Obviously this would mean the town PRs are not just one or two shot variants of their roles. If that's the case, what are the odds the godfather has any additional abilities?

Scenario A is where I believe we are. The reason we could have had only 1 death the second night is because the remaining mafia doctor saved one of their teammates. We may have no town doctor; meaning Roslin may have never been targeted. More on this later.

Scenario B doesn't work because a mafia team of 1 doesn't exist, that's called a serial killer. As it was specifically stated we have 4 mafia in this game I don't think a serial killer is likely because 4 mafia + SK vs 8 town is pretty bad odds for town, especially since we can only be certain of town having 2 PRs (inventor + either doc or tracker as one of them could be mafia and lying). So this just doesn't hold up, and I can't believe you'd even suggest it.

Scenario C isn't likely either as I doubt mafia got duplicate roles on the same team (town doesn't usually even get duplicate PRs). On top of that I doubt we have a vig as they should have shot me Night 2 and Night 3 with the way the preceding day phases went. Unless you think I'm the vig, but if I was I would have shot Roslin to prove my innocence. And I refuse to believe we have a vig that's good enough to hit 3 mafia but allows town to get lynched every single day. So we obviously don't have a vig. If anyone claims vig, they are my new number one lynch target cause I just can't see that existing.

As for reasons why only 1 player died night 2...it's either one of the mafia intentionally chose not to kill anyone, or they hit someone protected by doc (whether that doc be scum or town aligned remains undetermined). Considering both scum teams have a doc, its not impossible town also has one. Tigh may indeed be a town doc that saved Roslin. However we could just as easily have had a scum doc (tigh or otherwise) save either themselves or their teammate that night. The fact that Tigh is still alive when he was the only PR to claim yesterday just doesn't sit right with me. If we aren't lynching him, I definitely want him tracked.