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God, I love Rose. ;__; And I think it's cool that the show is doing that, because at first they kind of showed (to an extent) most of the character's good sides, and it seems like this time they're going to show the dark side of every character.

Btw, I am so sad at Sun for that! I had faith in her. I was like NO SHE DID NOT CHEAT IT WAS AN ISLAND MIRACLE! ;__; But noooo. But wouldn't it be a kicker if it WAS Jin's baby and it was an island miracle, but she just happened to sleep with that bald guy without getting pregnant? xD I want that to happen so much!
They have been on the island for 69 days. Sun took her pregnancy test in Episode 2-16, "The Whole Truth", which took place on about day 58, and even that date is friendly (it's probably 60+). She would have already missed a menstrual cycle had she conceived prior to the plane crash. There's no telling how long before Sun and Jin leave after Jae's death, but I assume it's about a week. That's 65 days from possible conception to Sun's realization that she's pregnant. That leaves no doubt that there must be another menstrual cycle in there that would be late had Sun gotten pregnant prior to getting on the island.

EDIT: This assumes of course that Sun has a normal reproductive system. Some women do bleed in the early stages of a pregnancy, anyway, but it's pretty rare.
I definitely think there's a good chance the baby is Jin's. Assuming it's not Jin's and it's bald dude guy's, then that would make Sun about 3 months into her pregnancy and she should be showing more. Plus she would have gotten morning sickness at like the 1 month mark. Anyway, none of this might matter because it is television and the writers could have just been like, "screw it! We're gonna make Sun have bald dude's baby!"
You all keep forgetting a key point...

Sun is carrying the polar bear's love cubbies.