Anniversary Mafia Game Thread - The Final Day

[[M] Athena]

Thanks for your suggestions, but I'm a big boy and I can make my own actions.

I'll think about this but I have to pull a Wakka and go eat dinner.

[[M] Colette]

if you can convince me that relm is on the mafia with the most team mates left (clearly with 3 dead mafia members, one mafia is larger than the other right now) then I will vote for her btw. But I think it is Wakka's mafia.

[[M] Athena]

Nah, I can't convince you of that. I'm done with the in depth analysis of this game. I made 100 posts yesterday and it got me a noose so screw that. I'm going with my results and the reaction to them and that points to Relm.

Presumably if there is a 3-mafia team left then they would want to ice the last of the other mafia team because that lone gunman would be their biggest threat. So one of the two of us would at least be around tomorrow. Probably you since killing me is a running gag in this game.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

I think the Fistoulari principle applies to the 2 mafia hypothesis.

[[M] Colette]

Probably you since killing me is a running gag in this game.

hey man they tried to kill me plenty of times before!

I've done all I can. It's 2 AM and I've been up since 6 so I am going to bed. Relm and Wakka are both scum we just need to hit the right pair. I think it's the Wakka/Faris pair. Good luck everyone.

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

Not sure why you keep doing this. 'I'll post it later guys, I swear.' Your first post should have been this information!

Sorry about that, but just as I was going to type out this post my daughter sent me a text message saying she needed a ride home. Family is always going to come before Mafia, even though I love you all so much!

by the way wedge... have you considered the possibility you're being roleblocked and that is why nobody has ever got a report? it makes some sense, no? i think so.

Of course I did but I want to really look at want to take the time to recap my investigations to see why the could have failed:
Night 1: Investigate Laguana report to Serah. These two are switched by bus driver Kain and Serah receives the benefit of doctor's protection and Laguna receives a report on himself right after he eats a bullet from Yuffie.
Night 2: Investigate Faris reports to Quina. Sadly our beloved princess is dead, that's what happens when you are too smart for your own good.
Night 3: Investigate Rydia report to Yuffie. Yuffie told us that on night 3 she did a stake out preventing anyone from being able to target her. There goes my report.
Night 4: I didn't tell anyone about this report but I made an insinuation that no one questioned. The truth is I investigated Refia and sent the report to Biggs, that is why it upset me so much that not only was Refia dead the next morning but Biggs prematurely states he did not receive any stinking report. This and his pressure to get me to cough up my role name is why I voted against him. I didn't expect it to go any where, I expected to get lynched, which would have been better for the town. >_<
Night 5: In an effort to get a report thorough to someone I wanted to choose someone who was not high profile but did not seem to be scummy either. I sent my report to Balthier and I investigated Relm.
I was going to vote for Relm today for several reasons. She's been trying to paint me as scum from the get go without ever voting for me. If she successfully convinces everyone I'm mafia and they lynch me then she can say well I didn't vote for him I just thought he was suspicious.
She voted for Yuffie instead of Blank and she willingly jumped right on the "lynch Biggs" speed lynch.
Balthier voted for Relm.
Rikku's reporting that Relm has a gun fits with my assessment of her.
I also believe there are two mafia teams out there and it would make sense that each of them would have a specialized killer on there team. I know that I see much but that Psychotic sees more and is very good at discerning what people are not saying when they post. This is why I am willing to let him persuade me now. Tomorrow, if I am not night killed, I will vote for Relm.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

I don't know what to make of that other than it seems that Wedge is a bit better at this game than we have been led to believe.

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

One other point that I forgot to mention in favor of siding with Luneth is that Relm suggested that I investigate her and send the report to Faris, this would give Faris the chance to clear Relm as a townie.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Not if your report is poisoned. In your scenario, the only people that you have sent a report to who failed to die immediately also appear to have failed to receive the report, likely due to a roleblocker.

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

I'm saying if they are both scum and on the same team, Faris can say I received the report and it says that Relm is an artist who is misunderstood when it really says Relm is a scumbag that likes to draw. She could say that whatever she wants if I confirm that I send a report to her about her own partner, whether she actually receives the report or not.

[[M] Athena]

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

One other point that I forgot to mention in favor of siding with Luneth is that Relm suggested that I investigate her and send the report to Faris, this would give Faris the chance to clear Relm as a townie.

Not quite. If you buy into the 2 mafia claim then Faris is part of one of the mafias.

I've thought over Luneth's theory and there is something to it. However, even in his theory he has Relm down as a scumbag. So voting for Relm has his theory and my investigation behind it. Voting for Wakka only has his theory. The choice is clear for me.

Even if we are taking out the weaker mafia team, there will still be two killing factions out there if Luneth is correct. So they will need to gun for each other as much as us. In fact, if one team is only down to one member it benefits that person a lot more to take out at least one of the other mafia before they start going for town roles. At least I think so.

[[M] Mike - Funny Dad]

Once again, I feel the need to reiterate the Fistoulari principle: If you need something to be true, assume it is. If fewer than 50% of the remaining players is town, then the town has already lost. If the 2 mafia hypothesis is true, then less than 50% of the remaining players are town. Therefore any action taken by the town which is predicated on the 2 mafia hypothesis is suicidal.

[[M] Athena]

Good thing I'm acting based on my own nightly results then.

Also that Day Kill picture never sat well with me.

[Jiro]

I've had questions, so I should clarify a point. Night actions for inactive players have been randomised since night 2 as otherwise the game would have broken completely. I had a finely tuned balance in this game.

However, in the interest of fairness, these night actions had to first pass a d2 roll to decide if they even activated. For instance, Leila's investigations would need to roll a 1 to activate and then the target was chosen randomly from the remaining living players. This is a blanket rule I applied. Random.org was used to calculate all of this.

Don't take this as a confirmation of anybody or their role claim though. Lying is always a possibility from your fellow players.

[[M] Dave – Stepdad]

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

One other point that I forgot to mention in favor of siding with Luneth is that Relm suggested that I investigate her and send the report to Faris, this would give Faris the chance to clear Relm as a townie.

Not quite. If you buy into the 2 mafia claim then Faris is part of one of the mafias.

I've thought over Luneth's theory and there is something to it. However, even in his theory he has Relm down as a scumbag. So voting for Relm has his theory and my investigation behind it. Voting for Wakka only has his theory. The choice is clear for me.

Even if we are taking out the weaker mafia team, there will still be two killing factions out there if Luneth is correct. So they will need to gun for each other as much as us. In fact, if one team is only down to one member it benefits that person a lot more to take out at least one of the other mafia before they start going for town roles. At least I think so.

It's hard not to be persuaded by him because I've seen players say something that was seemingly innocuous in my eyes and he be totally correct at knowing exactly what their role was. I wish he hadn't gone to bed because I'm quite sure that he has check mate in 5 moves going on in his head and I wish I could strategize as well as he can.