I love the fact that I've successfully managed to be come so confusing that nobody has any idea what I'm up to.
I voted Wakka, but not because of today's events.
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Forgot to mention as well, it'll also work in reverse, as in if Wedge is a serial killer and what have you, then I should probably die tonight as well and that'll give you all what you want as well. It's win/win all round :)
The problem with your proposal is who do we vote for today? And you're forgetting my investigative role that is left, Relm. Are you then saying I'm a liar and you are not a gun-carrying role?
Eh, details :kakapo:
Who's actually been very inactive today?
Honestly, Relm's idea is useful I guess. I dunno. It'd sort out Penelo and Wedge once and for all, as well as Rikku and Relm. We have liars and it'll easily cut through that. I look forward to seeing excuses as to why results weren't as they should be. And excuses why it shouldn't happen in the first place :excited:Wakka. :colbert:
Cid hasn't posted since, forever. I'll probably rep him tomorrow. :roll2
I'm willing to drop Wedge in favour of someone else, the question is whom.
Luneth, explain to me why lynching Wakka is a great idea.
That's what rep means, genius. Rep = replace.
Anywho, Wedge also hasn't posted and we kind of need him to keep sharing his results so that we can eventually call out his BS.
btw place your bets on who the liars are
I am going to say all four of them are lying. Penelo and Relm are mafia, Wedge is a serial killer and Rikku is an Ugly Townie. :excited:
Oh and also, how much time is left in the day?
Mind you, I think new Wakka is just trying to get into terms understanding what the previous Wakka had been doing, and I think the old Wakka was playing rather poorly. He does contribute, but not his contributions were quite small compared to most of us, and I did find his posts to say, "lol time for dinner." rather annoying and pointless. Just indications that he's being active. Of course, both mafia and townies are guilty of doing this, so it's not exactly a good way to determine where he stands.
Well, he hasn't exactly been doing that either.
We should only hope that Wedge does show up today. I think he might, but if he doesn't, it might tell us he's hiding something from us or refuses to say anything because we've been doubting him almost every time.
He did up until today, I think.
Mindsmurf mafia. It's not supposed to make sense. :goofy:Oooh, here's our first refuser. Yes! :D What are you so afraid of with the plan? ;) That maybe it'll reveal a truth about you that you don't want me to see? I'll love you anyway, babe. You know that.
"time for dinner" is the oldest excuse in the book!
This'll be the third time, even. :aimkiss:
Vote for whoever you want, I don't really care. You're not in this for the town anyway, you've made that perfectly clear. :p My proposal is the best one for the town from pretty much every possible outcome. anyone who would rather keep going after me based on the pants reasoning given so far, that not one person who is doing it has tried to explain, will be saying quite enough about themselves as it is. so even that benefits the town. I'm just that much of a kind hearted soul. :flirt:
it'll all work out either way. I'm town and I know it. I've offered a pretty reasonble proposal to prove it, as well as clear up another number of issues to benefit the town. if my fellow townies and the scum out there continue to push the agenda, well that's up to them but like I said even in dying i'll still be able to prove the point. you'll just be a townie down and have to start over again tomorrow. Or you can do the right thing and try and sort it out now. Your choice, people.
I'm not even sure of what the plan is exactly. In general I don't like making elaborate plans in the thread because there's no guarantee that we'll all be alive the next day to see them work.
My vote is for a person who is carrying a gun yet has refused to answer to that accusation. Like I said, if you think I'm lying then vote my ass out but I know what information I have and I'm basing my vote on that.
I don't care if we might not all make it to see the plan in action, the whole point of the plan is to clear up the mess this town has gotten itself into.
I think it's a given that Wedge cannot be saved at this point. If the mafs don't take him out before knocking out a SK becomes a higher town priority than going after the mafia, the town will.
It's entirely possible that Wedge might be a SK and not know it. That would be a mindsmurf role. It also explains why the recipient of his report dies every time; that's the nature of the role. The investigation's a red herring -- Jiro's, not Wedge's -- and the real nature of the role is to kill the recipient. Wedge, if you're town-aligned, perhaps you should refrain from doing an investigation tonight and see if there is more than one kill.
wakka is scum so he should be the priority lynch target regardless.
then y'all do y'all plan and tomorrow it'll be prime mafia comedy all round
everyone wins
I think we can all agree that we're in a bit of a predicament. Quite embarrassing for us to be in, and we're so deep into the game. We have no idea who's lying, or telling the truth. All we have to go on about is trusting our instincts.
It's not exactly a very elaborate plan. As I said, based on the assumptions that everyone has been telling the truth so far, Wedge and Faris are town, therefore Wedge investigates me and sends the results to faris, who posts them in the thread tomorrow. It's not exactly airship science.
This'll be the fourth time I've answered your accusation. You're lying. The only way you can prove you're not is by getting people to lynch me and me flipping something with a gun, but it won't happen. So you'll have wasted a day and a Townie. But that's your agenda and you're sticking to it, I understand that. You're not my concern, the town are.
I, however, can prove I'm telling the truth, by having the two "confirmed" townies investigate me. Even if something were to go amiss in the night, it'd still give the town plenty of options. Say, for instance, the mafia decide to kill one of Me, Wedge, or Faris so the whole thing falls apart. What have they got to gain from that? Obviously, it'll mean they don't want the truth about my status to come out because at the moment, you're doing a pretty good job for them. What if Faris doesn't get a report? Well, unfortunately it doesn't do anything about my status but it will be the only instance in the game of Wedge having a public and clearly defined investigation that hasn't worked. So there's something to go on there, too. Like I said, this plan benefits only the town, and I can't think of any good reason why a townie would be against it.
Yes, but if the plan relies on certain people being alive tomorrow, ie. Faris, then it really doesn't work it all if she's killed. You can't say 'person X tracks Y who investigates Z' when any of X, Y and Z may be killed. That plan doesn't work and leaves us in worse shape than we began in.
you're the one who said yourself you want people to vote for me because it would make you happy. other than that you've got nothing to go on, other than claiming you're a gunsmith and I've got a gun. You're lying. It helps with your agenda. that'll be proved either way. so :shobon:
they'll hit him either way if he's that good of a townie. the only difference will be you'll have killed another townie in me so you'll be two down and the mafia will be in an even stronger position. :monster:
About 10 hours left guys.
THE PLAN IS AN AFTERTHOUGHT. I mean it'll be good fun and will solve all our issues but let's not make it The Thing.
We must all lynch Wakka. That is what we must do!
Damnit where is Leon or Balthier when I need them? They'd get it.
So Relm, if you think I'm lying, why not vote for me? Your vote should have been placed on me after my very first post if you indeed don't have a gun. Because if I'm not a gunsmith then I am a mafia and an enemy of the town.
Town, look at my posts and tell me if they are consistent with my role. Then ask yourself what aim I would have as a mafia to act as I am now. Don't look for what is suspicious, look for how a mafia would act to avoid suspicion. A mafia wavers. A mafia doesn't commit. A mafia tries to confuse. I am doing none of those things, but Relm is.
I have no idea what Luneth or Wakka are and for all I know Luneth could be on to something. But I'm not going to trust him when I have a result right in front of me that is not adding up with what Relm is saying. Please join me in lynching Relm and not worry about crazy capers or elaborate schemes.
You had me up until the point where you told me not to engage in crazy capers or elaborate schemes. ;)
Honestly, Rikku, I'm warming to you. Maybe I was wrong. I don't know. But I dunno. I don't feel it on Relm. That Relm straight up refused to claim is less suspicious to me than Penelo instantly caving to you.
I also found Penelo's caving suspicious, but really it makes it between her and Wedge at this point and in an end game scenario I think the right decision will be made. That's why I laid off her after the claim.
From your perspective I can see the doubt, but I hope you can see from my perspective why I would want Relm out, assuming I'm telling the truth. And why I can't join you on Wakka today. Sorry bud.
What good would it do me to vote for you? Would you have suddenly run away screaming and apologised for the whole thing? no. You've got your agenda, and you're sticking to your guns (see what I did there)
also, don't try and put words in my mouth. I've never even floated the idea that you're a mafia. I've already stated on however many occasions that you're on your own agenda here, just like you were yesterday. I think it was the post after you voted for me, you came straight out and said "Vote for relm, it would make me very happy." Not "It will be good for the town", not "because she is a scum and I can prove it", do it for the good of your soul.
And don't get me wrong, I think you're lying very well. You picked a brilliant fake claim to make, one that is very hard to disprove. However, the town can disprove it, as well as gain however many other benefits, by not killing me and having me investigated instead. but it's up to them. Either waste me and gain nothing other than a happy Rikku, or investigate me, and potentially gain a ton of new, solid information and at least two, maybe three confirmed townies. It's not really that difficult of a choice to make, unless confirmed townies is bad for you. :redface:
Do you rave? Every Wedge Report recipient is dead. The worst thing Wedge could possibly do to the town would be to send a report to the only townie we can trust. That looks like the move of a maf trying to get us to jump the gun on a maybe-SK in order to free up a night kill.
Send the sodding report to me if you are all scared of Faris dying. I'd laugh for approximately seven whole minutes if they killed me... right before I replaced back in as Cid.
That only works if the serial killer theory is true, Which I don't think it is. I'd sooner buy that Wedge is not telling the truth then he's scum rather than an SK, but that's just me. :redface: and like I said to Rikku, if Faris is that good of a townie then what makes you think the mafia are going to let her live tonight anyway? She could very well go down for a number of reasons. But like I said, assuming Faris and Wedge are telling the truth, like me, this is the only way for it to be proven. :redface:
Can we seriously cool it with the agenda crap? There is no hidden agenda. I will admit that I got a bit of a smile when I got Relm's results back but I never would go after a town player as part of some agenda. That's petty and I'm above it. Even Psychotic knows this. I would never vote for someone I didn't suspect of being mafia so drop it now or pay the price after the game is over.
Of course, if I'm mafia then all bets are off. ;)
Please judge my actions as mafia/not mafia and not part of some personal agenda. That's not how I play this game and I will not continue to play this game if that keeps becomming an issue.
besides, even if Faris is going to die, if wedge sends the report and she does, well, the mafia have to be just as afraid of wedge as they do the town so he'll get his. and I'll get lynched tomorrow and prove I was not lying. Like I said, if Faris is such a danger there's no promise she'll stay alive tonight anyway. In the best case scenario, however, the town stands far more to gain from doing this than from doing anything else. Anyone trying to dispute that is full of it. :redface:
No, I need you alive. For one more day, at least.
If I were Wedge, I'd take no action tonight, and then start sending reports to whoever I think is mafia. If my hypothesis on the nature of Wedge's role is right, there is no SK, there's a town-aligned nightkiller: Wedge himself.
How does this explain Penelo then?
Well anyway, I've pretty much said what I feel I need to say. I'm set in my convictions that my proposal would be the best way forward for the town. Hopefully people will see that. If not, at least take a good hard look at people who want nothing to do with it, because if you outweigh the potential benefits gained by doing it compared to not doing it, I'm sure there will be things to learn about the others from that alone. :redface: just make sure you think long and hard people. town depends on it.
gonna bugger off for a bit now, so before I go I will just
##vote Wakka
sorry man, nothing personal but I know I'm town and I'm not gonna self vote. and I'm definitely never going to do anything Rikku wants me to do (:aimkiss:) so, i'll throw my hat in with Luneth.
A vote of self-preservation and not one trying to find scum. Remember, if I am lying then Relm knows it. Yet she is steering clear of trying to vote for me in an effort to save herself.
Remember Biggs? He could have tried to get votes on Wedge to save himself. But he sacrificed because Wedge wasn't on his radar. That's what true townies do. Not come up with elaborate night action schemes that will in all likelihood backfire.
Sorry Rikku, Relm is under my protection now.
Every townie should make a self-preservation vote in this situation. They know what they are.
Relm has never said you are mafia.
Also Biggs, the man who lied about a roleclaim just to win a petty pissing contest, is not the paragon of a true townie.
What am I though, if I'm a liar?
Also why not lynch Relm and do the little night 6 scheme on Wakka instead? Lynching Wakka will still create doubt on my role. Lynching Relm will at least confirm or not confirm one town and you can still go through with proving Wakka guilty using the same exact plan you had before.
I'm sorry for my patchy posting. Typing in a rush, pretty busy today, didn't care about the ins and outs of grammar and trout. I also only mentioned the speed lynch thing cause I was thinking of voting Relm at that time, and that would have pushed her up to 4 votes. Leaving only 2 votes for the majority, which isn't cool. I was just thinking out loud. Take it or leave it, that's what was going on.
I am entirely skeptical of everything that has happened today. Roleclaims out the butt, conflicting stories, crazy plots... I wish I had more to say, but I have nothing to go on today because of all the convoulted reveals. Which doesn't help my innocence, falling into the ways of old Wakka and his crap posting. :( Relm's idea seems sound on paper, but that seems to require me taking one for the team. Which I'm not cool with, imagine.
Seems that the only decision really to be made today is whether myself or Relm gets the noose. I know what I'm voting if that ends up being the case.
Since I started typing this post, seems that I have been kicked to the top of the votes. I also know I'm town, and I also won't self-vote. Jumping on the Relm bandwagon will only make me appear scummier, but what can I do? Self-preservation dictates this move, sadly. Sorry bud.
##vote: Relm
I agree with Rikku if only because it'll let me live another day.
I am not ready to die. :(
Oh, I'm not relying on this scheme at all. I've always got a crazy caper of my own. ;) It's got to be Wakka and it's got to be today.
Have you presented any other evidence on Wakka other than the speed lynch comment and the typical 'everyone listen to me because I'm so good at this :smug:' attitude?
Nothing wrong with self-preservation, Wakka. Town or mafia, you gotta do what you gotta do.
Uh... yeah... I've only posted the evidence about his utterly woeful vote history 3 times now.
Also not once said "listen to me I am great" in regards to Wakka. I saw how that went with Blank and I'll thank you not to suggest that again, lest you want me to use the personal agenda angle on you again. I have presented logical arguments and reasoning.
Where is that evidence? I live in the moment now so I refuse to check posts! Just generally tell me where to look for it.
I wish I could do more about my woeful vote history. I can't even begin to explain why the last guy saw fit to be so useless. I feel Rikku's pain here.
I will blame both God and my predecessor, just for good measure.
Also I think there is a meta-game reason for doing Wakka in but I can't say it because it's not fair. But just so you all know that's part of why I have a bee in my bonnet. I can't overlook that even if I won't say it. Sorry Wakka... but god knows you mafia types killed me for being Psychotic, so :monster: What goes around comes around.
Fair enough, though I hate meta gaming (and even the mention of it) and I can't really use that in my criteria whether or not I believe you.
To be honest, absent my role actions proving Relm to be a liar I would probably have voted for Wakka. But that's a guess based on activity and the info I have on Relm is fact.
What lies did Relm tell? In all seriousness now, because I didn't notice that and that's a gamechanger.
Lies aren't a gamechanger. Biggs lied and he was town. I've lied and I'm town.
What lie did you tell?
rots and rots of ries
[M] Relm (4) - Balthier, Rikku, Faris, Wakka
[M] Wakka (3) - Rydia, Luneth, Relm
[M] Wedge (1) - Penelo
6.5 hours left, there abouts.
Wakka needs to die. And it needs to be today. Sorry kids, can't tell you why. There is a compelling reason and it'll be obvious if you help me on this. I don't want to post it though because I think it'll help Wakka and his mafia friend(s)? (I assume there were 5 of them) If you need more information to trust me then I'm afraid you'll just have to not trust me. Some of you may already know the reason, I think.
Faris is both disappointing and intriguing me, and I have to wonder what's going on there. Balthier hasn't been here since he put down a vote. The other two I understand and they won't change their votes. Cid, Wedge, won't vote. That means I have one hope.
LEON!Please consider this information. Thank you.
Leon would only create a tie, and then Stiltz would have to pick the townie.
We need someone to change their mind in order to punch Wakka in the ovaries while maintaining unbroken eye contact.
I only pick the lynched after sudden death is up and usually somebody is brave enough to change their vote by that point.
A tie is better than what we're sleepwalking into at the moment. I just wish people would consider what I have to say. I know the town can play better than this. There's no urgent need to lynch Relm today when she can be lynched tomorrow if people still want to do that.
Oh well, when the game is over I'm going to point back to this post and spam a million I TOLD U SO :smug: posts in the discussion thread. That always cheers me up! :p
To be honest, I kind of feel bad about gunning for someone who's just subbed in, but if we don't go after the character instead of the player, we essentially lose by default. That's what cost us Del Murder last time.
Oh smurf it I'm just going to come out and say it.
I think we have two mafias.
Wakka, Faris (Godfather), Setzer, unknown.
Penelo, Relm, Blank, Galuf.
I know having four on each is insanely powerful but you consider the amount of hax roles the town has had.
I've made my analysis as to team mates from votes and suspicions. Note Setzer voting for Relm yesterday, for example, and Penelo defending her. I also note Faris is not voting for Wakka which is why she is with him.
Mafia 2 has two members left, Mafia 1 has three. I hope you can now see why we need to get Wakka down first. I mean if you want to get Faris, that's cool too, but yeah.
I don't know if I will have time to post my full "Person X is in Mafia Y" notes as they're mostly mental. And, well, effort. But feel free to look over their posts and associations yourself and see if you think I am right.
I don't know who the unknown is but just wait and see who votes for Relm and who votes for Wakka.
I am not sure why you believe I won't vote today, Luneth, I've only been inactive because I was cooking and entertaining guests (and then had to take a 2 hour nap to recover some). I am here now and I have quickly read up on what I've missed, but I will have to read more into why it is such a rush to lynch Wakka right now for the good of town and all. I know you are a good player and I agree with your assessment of who is mafia, but I missed the reason for the rush on Wakka.
Galuf and Setzer are presumably not on the same team as they are a specialist killing role.
Faris has outright refused to vote for Wakka, thus is on Wakka's team.
Setzer was often up in Relm's trout and voted for him, so is probably not on Relm's team.
Penelo seems rather naive. She has been defending Relm, so they are likely together.
As Blank and Faris are both Godfathers, they are not on the same team.
I appreciate this is not perfect logic but it's what I have been working on. I've been looking back through the thread and there's more ties but I'm going to bed right now. This is just a starter point. There is more but I'm so tired. Christ I'll probably end up staying up and posting it anyway.
Mafia A (Wakka, Faris, Setzer, unknown) is undoubtedly the stronger right now, given the number advantage and the mystery surrounding the fourth member. We need to hit them first and we need to hit them now.
If we lynch Relm today, and they kill 2 town tonight (I suspect me and Rikku might be getting it) that's 3 mafia A, 1 mafia B, 4 town. And we don't know who the other member of mafia A is. Not a good position to be in because you're staring game over in the face right there. Lynch Wakka, and you're left with 2 mafia A, 2 mafia B, 4 town. Mafia A is weakened, and this gives more room for error for the town.
Rikku, Leon, I leave it up to you. I hope to god one of you two is not the mystery mafia member. Rikku, I am happy to lynch Relm or Penelo tomorrow. I really am.
Please please please listen to me. Thank you.
Luneth is pretty smart, but he's very determined to have Wakka lynched, because he's been acting scummy. However, I think we should focus our attention on someone just as scummy, like Relm, who Rikku, a gunsmith, determined to be owning a gun. Penelo, the other person with a gun from Rikku's report, is an FBI agent, seems pretty innocent at the moment. Relm, on the other hand, simply refuses to cooperate when we've been accusing her. She, to me, seems more dangerous a scum, than Wakka.
Anyway, Wedge... I sense you might have done some investigating for us last night. Care to share with who you investigated, and who might have those reports with us?
Luneth, I've determine both Wakka and Relm might be scum, but to me, Relm is simply the more dangerous of the two.
why is Relm more dangerous? please advise. I need to know why. Thank you.
No, you make complete sense and I agree with your assessment. Well, I have been willing to trust your judgement before so I will so again. I have to leave for a bit but I am willing to put my vote down now and when I come back I will tell you about my reporting.
##Vote: [M] Wakka
Not sure why you keep doing this. 'I'll post it later guys, I swear.' Your first post should have been this information!
The 2 mafias theory is plausible, and makes sense given all the smurf ton of town power roles in this game. Seriously. If there were no inactives in this game then the mafia would have been pretty screwed.
Luneth, does the 2 mafia theory fit in with your own role or are you just basing this with what has been posted? Also, if you feel you are in danger of being killed I hope you would claim before the day is over if it helps the town.
I think I called for this before, but seriously if everyone claimed at this point I'm pretty sure we could put the pieces together.
Did Faris mention who she tracked last night? Is there a recap somewhere of all of Faris's trackings?
Faris tracked Setzer which was very convienient.
Suggest you investigate Faris tonight.
nothing to do with my role, I can claim if needs be. But I don't know if it would really help. I just hope to confuse the mafia into who to target. You, me, each other. Interesting to see how it all goes down.
although if you have a hunch as to whoever this other bastard is investigate them instead. I don't have a clue right now. Suspect it is not Wedge or Rydia. Process of elimination: Leon, Balthier, Cid.
Thanks for your suggestions, but I'm a big boy and I can make my own actions.
I'll think about this but I have to pull a Wakka and go eat dinner.
if you can convince me that relm is on the mafia with the most team mates left (clearly with 3 dead mafia members, one mafia is larger than the other right now) then I will vote for her btw. But I think it is Wakka's mafia.
Nah, I can't convince you of that. I'm done with the in depth analysis of this game. I made 100 posts yesterday and it got me a noose so screw that. I'm going with my results and the reaction to them and that points to Relm.
Presumably if there is a 3-mafia team left then they would want to ice the last of the other mafia team because that lone gunman would be their biggest threat. So one of the two of us would at least be around tomorrow. Probably you since killing me is a running gag in this game.
I think the Fistoulari principle applies to the 2 mafia hypothesis.
Sorry about that, but just as I was going to type out this post my daughter sent me a text message saying she needed a ride home. Family is always going to come before Mafia, even though I love you all so much!
Of course I did but I want to really look at want to take the time to recap my investigations to see why the could have failed:
Night 1: Investigate Laguana report to Serah. These two are switched by bus driver Kain and Serah receives the benefit of doctor's protection and Laguna receives a report on himself right after he eats a bullet from Yuffie.
Night 2: Investigate Faris reports to Quina. Sadly our beloved princess is dead, that's what happens when you are too smart for your own good.
Night 3: Investigate Rydia report to Yuffie. Yuffie told us that on night 3 she did a stake out preventing anyone from being able to target her. There goes my report.
Night 4: I didn't tell anyone about this report but I made an insinuation that no one questioned. The truth is I investigated Refia and sent the report to Biggs, that is why it upset me so much that not only was Refia dead the next morning but Biggs prematurely states he did not receive any stinking report. This and his pressure to get me to cough up my role name is why I voted against him. I didn't expect it to go any where, I expected to get lynched, which would have been better for the town. >_<
Night 5: In an effort to get a report thorough to someone I wanted to choose someone who was not high profile but did not seem to be scummy either. I sent my report to Balthier and I investigated Relm.
I was going to vote for Relm today for several reasons. She's been trying to paint me as scum from the get go without ever voting for me. If she successfully convinces everyone I'm mafia and they lynch me then she can say well I didn't vote for him I just thought he was suspicious.
She voted for Yuffie instead of Blank and she willingly jumped right on the "lynch Biggs" speed lynch.
Balthier voted for Relm.
Rikku's reporting that Relm has a gun fits with my assessment of her.
I also believe there are two mafia teams out there and it would make sense that each of them would have a specialized killer on there team. I know that I see much but that Psychotic sees more and is very good at discerning what people are not saying when they post. This is why I am willing to let him persuade me now. Tomorrow, if I am not night killed, I will vote for Relm.
I don't know what to make of that other than it seems that Wedge is a bit better at this game than we have been led to believe.
Thanks for the vote of confidence! :kakapo:
One other point that I forgot to mention in favor of siding with Luneth is that Relm suggested that I investigate her and send the report to Faris, this would give Faris the chance to clear Relm as a townie.
Not if your report is poisoned. In your scenario, the only people that you have sent a report to who failed to die immediately also appear to have failed to receive the report, likely due to a roleblocker.
I'm saying if they are both scum and on the same team, Faris can say I received the report and it says that Relm is an artist who is misunderstood when it really says Relm is a scumbag that likes to draw. She could say that whatever she wants if I confirm that I send a report to her about her own partner, whether she actually receives the report or not.
Not quite. If you buy into the 2 mafia claim then Faris is part of one of the mafias.
I've thought over Luneth's theory and there is something to it. However, even in his theory he has Relm down as a scumbag. So voting for Relm has his theory and my investigation behind it. Voting for Wakka only has his theory. The choice is clear for me.
Even if we are taking out the weaker mafia team, there will still be two killing factions out there if Luneth is correct. So they will need to gun for each other as much as us. In fact, if one team is only down to one member it benefits that person a lot more to take out at least one of the other mafia before they start going for town roles. At least I think so.
Once again, I feel the need to reiterate the Fistoulari principle: If you need something to be true, assume it is. If fewer than 50% of the remaining players is town, then the town has already lost. If the 2 mafia hypothesis is true, then less than 50% of the remaining players are town. Therefore any action taken by the town which is predicated on the 2 mafia hypothesis is suicidal.
Good thing I'm acting based on my own nightly results then.
Also that Day Kill picture never sat well with me.
I've had questions, so I should clarify a point. Night actions for inactive players have been randomised since night 2 as otherwise the game would have broken completely. I had a finely tuned balance in this game.
However, in the interest of fairness, these night actions had to first pass a d2 roll to decide if they even activated. For instance, Leila's investigations would need to roll a 1 to activate and then the target was chosen randomly from the remaining living players. This is a blanket rule I applied. Random.org was used to calculate all of this.
Don't take this as a confirmation of anybody or their role claim though. Lying is always a possibility from your fellow players.
It's hard not to be persuaded by him because I've seen players say something that was seemingly innocuous in my eyes and he be totally correct at knowing exactly what their role was. I wish he hadn't gone to bed because I'm quite sure that he has check mate in 5 moves going on in his head and I wish I could strategize as well as he can.
Ok, let's not start sucking his dick just yet, though.
Thank you Jiro for the confirmation of my role. jk jk
Seriously, my dear, please don't be vulgar. What is the vote count right now?
All tied up, slick.
:confused: I'm not miffed, slick.
I'll post updated counts and tallies in an hour when I get home. You have roughly two hours left by my memory.
I've never doubted you, Wedge. Now you have Penelo saying you are a Serial Killer. What do you say to that?
I was about to call both of you out on this, but with Jiro's latest clarification, I'm not so sure.
There's a 50/50 chance that you didn't get a result on the two nights that you claimed, so that's still probably :/. If you are lying about your roles though, why bother claiming that you missed a night? It could be a cover up to explain inactivity, as you were both rather inactive, yet both now claim to have submitted a bunch of night actions.
Not sure how to feel here.
I've only just skimmed what I've missed, and I will be here till end of day, but at the moment I'm going to read through in a little more detail.
Will post my thoughts as I go, so do excuse me if I repeat things that others have mentioned, or if my posts aren't on topic :p
Read carefully, Leon. You decide who lives and who dies.
No pressure.
I have been thinking about it and I am sorry Paul, but I can't see as far ahead as you can. I posted my beliefs about Relm and I really believe Relm is scum so I should stick to what I know. I guess it was unfortunate that I had to leave just as you tired out so that I can't get a line on your thinking. If you are correct and Faris and Relm are in it together against a more populated mafia team wouldn't it be better to rub out the team with smaller numbers so that we can limit the number of night kills? This would be reasonable in my eyes. I'm willing to entertain your team theory and to investigate those who've you pointed out but I think I need to stick to what I know.
##Unvote: [M] Wakka
##Vote: [M] Relm
The guy knows how to get my attention.
My opinion of Wedge, as of this post ^^ (you can see how far behind I am - though I'll come to some sort of conclusion last minute), is that he was (is) a little bit annoying and low flying. Like real low flying. Superficial. No substance.
I get the feeling that Wedge does have a juicy role though. Something that makes him return from bed or that delicious turkey, to just check on the town and do his cool role thing. No idea what that role is, but it must be something nifty.
Who is it between at the moment? A quick skim tells me Wakka and Relm, and tbh, they both strike me as scummy. They're both annoying. But at the moment Wakka is looking worse in my books. Once I'm with everyone, I'll give something more definitive.
While I catch up everyone, why not discuss the absence of Cid and Balthier?
Cid especially. That dude should have been replaced wayyy ahead of anyone else, right? Unless he is actually here.
Just sayin'
Yah i got a "whisper" in my ear which i coukd only assume was wedge. It was about relm and how she's not what she appears so, with a confrimation like that i went for the relm vote.
Also I had to work black Friday, hence my absense.
And that's that.
Good work team!
Cheers.
Ok, so at the moment Relm is one vote from death.
I had put up the who Cid/Balthier suggestion, before reading the whole two mafias thing (which explains why Luneth thought I would follow his lead, as I theorized that earlier), as I figured Cid seemed too suspicious in his lack of replacement.
Maybe he's that 4th unknown member of the mafia faction that Luneth was talking about.
But that is pointless at the moment. It's down to two people, and I have to pick between them it seems.
The main reason I'm leaning toward Wakka over Relm is because of Refia's thoughts on the entire town. I don't know what scope her role covered, but she is another confirmed investigative role in this sea of claimed investigators (seriously, it seems that everyone is a damn investigator, and I think at least one of them is lying).
There issue here is that Refia only said "[M] Wakka - Again another poster who pops in says hi then vanishes. His under the radar approach irks me a bit, but not enough to call definite scum." about Wakka in that large post (but had put suspicion on him at other times too).
This is only a pretty weak accusation, but it's the best I have at the moment.
I mentioned who it was, voted them, stated the info i got and was waiting for wedge to confirm. It didn't tell me who said the whusper, just that there was one. Wedge would have known but I didn't want to bring unwarranted attention. Plus I posted before I left for work. I hate black friday. It needs to die
So like, 15 minutes remaining, kupo. :mog:
Relm is one away from a majority lynch. Leon and Cid left to vote.
[M] Relm (5) - Balthier, Rikku, Faris, Wakka, Wedge
[M] Wakka (3) - Rydia, Luneth, Relm,Wedge
[M] Wedge (1) - Penelo
I just have this terrible feeling that if there are two mafias, one is currently manipulating the town to remove the other.
I feel that Wakka or Relm could flip scum, or both! But which would be the best scum to remove?
In the post I made when I voted relm.
So what you're saying is that I can either confirm Relm's quite likely death at the moment, or bolster the attack against Wakka in the hopes that we can buy more time if someone evens the score.
I feel as though I have no choice here.
10 minutes kupo!!! :mog:
Yup! That was what was in my whisper and so thats what I said. I figured I could say more when wedge showed up and confirmed it but I wasnt positive that was wedges role. But then wedge didn't show up til after I left for my long workday.
FIVE MINUTES KUPO!!!!! :mog:
Remember, if Wedge's role is confirmed then that means Penelo is the scum of the earth since her FBI claim is total BS.
[M] Relm is facing the lynch! Going once.....
Going twice........!
Look. I can't decide between them. There are strong reasons for and against both of them. I really depends on whose claim I trust at the moment, and I don't have enough time to decide that.
I'm fairly convinced by what Balthier has just said to me, but regardless, my vote won't change the outcome of this lynch, and being the last vote on people has never worked out well for me.
Going three times........!
Not voting is a vote for Relm
Taking bets on how long it takes Jiro to realize he's posting on the wrong account
I dont think he cares actually.
and SOLD!
Relm was painting a picture of herself playing in the field surrounded by flowers. As they dragged her towards the stage, she desperately tried to talk her way out of things. Balthier expected this though, and gagged her.
"You'd have been welcome at my place once your were older," Balthier said. "But not now, sweet cheeks."
[M] Relm was a Mafia Grifter played by DK. Your artistic skills are the stuff of legend.
You all know the drill. 18 hours. Night actions. Make it snappy, kupo. :mog:
PS I know full well this is the wrong account, but [M] Stiltzkin lacks the ability to close threads and I'm too smurfing lazy to have two browsers open right now. :aimsun:
Reminder: While Relm's pictures were amusing, we do not allow drawings of people dipping balls into others' mouth at EoFF. Please make sure you continue to abide by the rules of conduct at EoFF even in your mafia accounts. Thanks.
The town were pretty chuffed after yesterday. I mean, they'd lynched Relm and she'd been a dirty scumbag, what's not great? Well it seems the townies momentarily forgot that things weren't over. But it ain't over til the last mafian is stringed up. I hope this is a lesson you learn, kupo. :mog:
[M] Balthier was a Cop played by Freya and My Little Pokey.
24 hours begins now. With 9 players remaining, it takes 5 for a majority lynch. Go get 'em, kupo. :mog:
Balthier was the cop! Well, that was surprising. I never suspected him to be a cop. He never role-claimed it, nor say anything about any results...mmm. This now makes (I think) two confirmed cops, Leila's insane, and Balthier is sane.
This makes [M] Wedge's investigative role-claim (for those still disbelieving of me) slightly less convincing. The town surely can't have three cops running around right?
Dammit.
Dammit.
Dammit.
Dammit.
Dammit.
Get out of here, Bleys!
annnnd wrong account again. smurf me.
What I mean is three "standard" cops, my role is different in that it catches Serial Killers. But I digress.
Fair enough. I kinda just pooled all the blue/investigative roles together in my head as 'cops' :p
But we're just debating semantics here, sorry. Shall we move on?
Let's see if Balthier gave us anything remotely specific.
That's okay Leon, I understand :)
Well, in terms of his role, Balthier was even less useful than Wedge :p
None of us actually knew Balthier was a cop, and this was up to Day Six, were over halfway, hell, I'd even argue were fast approaching endgame. It's unusual for a crucial investigative role like Balthier to actually not claim it. Even worse, he never once described a report. Even if, as Wedge "claims" it turns out he gave the report for someone else to deliver to us, he never said for "I investigated [person] and gave my report to [person]".
Personally, I'm baffled with this revelation.
So I've read through all his posts, and as he said himself, most of the people he has found suspicious have died.
He did talk about Faris, Wedge and Rydia a fair bit (as they were roleclaimers at the time of some of his posts), so it is possible that he investigated them and they came up clean? (he was initially suspicious of Faris and Wedge and later dropped it)
This would reflect Lelia's investigations as well, though this still doesn't rule out Lawyer, 2nd Godfather (crazy, I know, ok?), or the possibility that an SK will only be guilty for an FBI agent.
The main thing here is that Balthier likely investigated Wedge (as he was initially suspicious of him), and Wedge likely came up clean (as Balthier seemed to speak more highly of Wedge yesterday). So unless the mafia has some sort of really annoying ability to PM people (see Mailmain, Courier or Whisperer), this confirms Wedge's innocence and his role.
Well, personally, I think it was a waste of a good role since Balthier was never very active and didn't contributed much. I do recall that he even refused to vote. Actually, I don't think Wedge is a cop anymore. He probably does have some kind of investigative role, but he can't share what he finds out when he investigates. Such a shame to lose another cop.
While I don't have any scummy vibes coming from Wedge (who was totally absent yesterday) I would like to point to my comments earlier that just because he shows up clean doesn't mean he isn't a serial killer. I still wouldn't exactly be comfortable with Wedge just yet.
A lot of Balthier's posts were from Day 2 before he got the opportunity to investigate (given his critique of Leila, I would assume he investigated himself night 1). So yeah, not much to read from him apart from yesterday's events with the whisper from Wedge.
Who did you follow last night Faris?
Oh wait dang hang on.
So far, everyone Wedge has implicated as receiving the report dies.
Balthier said he got a "whisper", and he is now dead. I don't know about you, but this is worrying.
Well, nobody took the bait last night, so I've got precisely bugger all to go on today.
I just have one question, though: What in the forty-nine Mulvanian Hells is a Mafia Grifter?
Haven't the slightest clue. What bait were you referring to Rydia?
Eh, makes sense. Either way, I didn't notice.
It's incredibly early in the day, and I need sleep. So I shall see you guys later. Have fun! :D
P.S. Have I mentioned, "dammit?"
Oh yeah, I forgot about your investigation of Wedge. Though, why aren't you gunning for Wedge a bit more?
I understand why you might want to be hesitant, but if you know you're the FBI Agent, and you received a guilty result after a few days of innocent results, I wouldn't be hesitant, I would be outright stating that Wedge were the Serial Killer.
This just seems off to me.
I completely disagree with that analysis.
Night 1: Laguna received the report but he died that night as he was shot by Yuffie - nothing to go on here
Night 2: Quina received the report and died that night - possible that the report killed Quina that night (though more likely died for being Del Murder :p)
Night 3: Yuffie would have receieved the report but couldn't - nothing to go on here.
Night 4: Biggs did not received the report for some reason, possibly a roleblocked in play, but Biggs did not die for receiving the report - nothing to go on here
Night 5: Balthier recieved the report and died the next night - possible that the report killed Balthier the next night
(SPOILER)
There is no direct pattern which associates those who receive Wedge's reports and their deaths.
My mind is effectively smurfed at this point. I mean yeah, there were a lot of roles and some cool gimmicks like Mafia Poisoner, but most of qwerty's games were mindsmurfier than this.
Everything has changed.
For starters, I never expected Balthier to die last night. Secondly, it utterly baffles me that he was a Cop. Something doesn't smell right here.
Cop
Insane Cop
Spy (???)
Tracker
Gunsmith
weird investigator
Most games would have two or three of those investigator roles. This game appears to have them all. If all these people were actually active and actually played their roles correctly, then the mafia is utterly smurfed.
Remember, there are no Mafia Goons in this game. So each mafia has a powerful role much like each town. So far we found:
Mafia Godfather (Blank)
Mafia Poisoner (Galuf)
Mafia Ninja (Setzer)
Mafia Grifter (Relm) - wtf is this anyway?
There are probably at least two left. Here's where it gets interesting, because some of the possible mafia roles are some of the most powerful roles they can have.
Mafia Prostitute - Could have been the one blocking Wedge during the nights he wasn't getting any results confirmed
Mafia Framer - With so many cops in play, this role seems likely if you believe all the claims
Mafia Cop - Could have been how they figured out Balthier and why he was taken out last night. This is the second most dangerous mafia role in my opinion, depending on how it is used.
And finally, the ultimate mafia role: Mafia Janitor. Mafia Janitor screws with the one and only way the town can confirm roles: the flip. It's the ultimate mindsmurf role and it could be Jiro's coup de grace.
That means Balthier was possibly a Mafia Cop and Refia was a Mafia Spy.
I think at least one of the above roles are still in play, possibly two or three.
I'll have to think about this some more, but fortunately my choice today is pretty clear.
##Vote: Penelo
Balthier basically confirmed Wedge's role yesterday with the 'whispers' he got about Relm. Therefore, he's probably what he says he is (role name please). Therefore, he's not a Serial Killer. Therefore, Penelo's FBI Agent claim is bogus.
1 down. You're next, Penelo. All of the conspirators against Biggs are falling.
I know, bed is calling me but I'll be quick, sweet sweet slumber. Right, basically, the main reason I've not been pushing Wedge off the proverbial cliff is essentially to keep him alive where it is possible for others to deduce his identity. The whole "Relm" gambit mentioned yesterday is what I'm gunning for; it's hard to uncover a SK when there's loads of people still left. Even now, there's nine of us still here. Not to mention not everyone really believes me in the first place, so what am I going to do, keep screaming blue murder till I'm blue in the face?
I kept my vote on Wedge didn't I yesterday. I know Wedge is the SK, my report says so and I think I'm sane. However is killing the SK right now possible? Given yesterday's antics with Relm, trying to divert attention to Wedge is hard. At the end of the day, I am just a lone voice and a lone vote.
And now I really have to go bed.
Oh yeah, and Luneth, I decided not to listen to you or trust you so I investigated you last night. Please be as so kind as to tell me what the result should have been so I can make sure you are not a dirty rotten liar.
Also if you could comment on my theories and how this day will affect the two-mafia theory that would be great. Thank you!
Well, we can waffle, or we can confirm Penelo's role the only way it can be done.
##Vote: Penelo
Even if there's a mafia janitor in play, it ill behooves them to smurf with this tactic.
That's how I would play it too, if I were an FBI Agent who found the serial killer. I would be jumping around going, "Hey guys, hey guys, hey guys" until someone listened or they lynched me. Either way it would tell I was telling the truth. I'm not afraid to be lynched, if you really need to lynch me to find out that Penelo is scummy, then go ahead do it. She claims I'm the serial killer and wants to pin everyone's death that I sent a report to on me, but it was the bandwagon speed lynch that killed Biggs, not my report and guess who was on that bandwagon.
##Vote: [M] Penelo
As far as who I investigated last night, well I chose Wakka, I wanted to see if I could confirm Luneth's story one way or another. I also expected Luneth and/or Rikku to get axed last night so I went with Balthier again, as he was finally the only one who seemed to be able to hear me. Having Balthier dead is very baffling to me, why did they go after him? Rikku has the ability to see who has a gun, why would the mafia let her live? Luneth laid everything on the table, if he was anywhere near correct, why is he still among us?
Exactly, my role isn't a cop role, I am the Oracle. Basically I'm a psychic, and just like a real investigative psychic, most people think it's all hooey. However, I don't really believe that Balthier would have confirmed my role if he didn't really get a report from me. A grifter is a person who uses deception and fraud to swindle people, Balthier's claim that he received a message that says that Relm is "not what she seems" would be inline with someone who was a grifter. I believe she used my report to expose Relm instead of her own because it gave her the opportunity to confirm a townie, expose the mafia, and keep her own role private. Unfortunately, someone figured it out anyway.
At this point I want to know what Faris did last night.
Who did you watch?
This is where Wakka comes in and tells us not to speed lynch. :p
Usually I love speed lynching because it makes the game go quicker and keeps it fresh. However, let's at least give Luneth some time to come on and talk out of his butt for a little while.
And you gunsmith, whose gun did you look for?
Already said Luneth about 5 posts up.
Sorry, my brain ignored the lack of reveal there :p
I agree with your action though. Let's see what Luneth has to say.
I'm at work, where mafiascum.net is blocked, but I can't seem to find a list containing Oracle. You are most likely a Bumbling Detective; a protective/modifying role could be why Balthier took an extra day to die. The death toll of your hint recipients is too staggering to be coincidence. I can believe that a modifying role hit you once, but every time?
Let's assume Balthier didn't lie about the report.
If Penelo is telling the truth and Wedge is an SK then either Wedge has the role of SK and Courier/Mailman/Whisperer (which seems a little unfair, but I suppose it's possible), or there is someone out there who is a Courier/Mailman/Whisperer who knew/guessed to send a report to Balthier last night so that he could confirm Wedge's claim yesterday, which is highly improbable (I think we can rule this one out).
The alternative would be that Penelo is lying and Wedge did send the report to Balthier yesterday.
Initially I was quite sceptical, but the more I think about it, the more plausible the first situation becomes (by that I mean, I would consider it). It is entirely possible that Wedge has some sort of kill every other night role, but if it is the case, I wouldn't say his kills were associated with the actions he has claimed (see my analysis above).
The best way to confirm/deny this would be to know where he went each night.
Sounds ludicrous, huh?
Those are the possibilities, I personally think it is more likely that you're telling the truth here.
Just need to cover all bases.
It is fishy that everyone who gets a report ends up dead at some point soon after. But if he was a killer mailman then why would he tell the truth about the reports?
I think Wedge is being completely honest, and that only unfortunately makes Penelo look like a big fat liar.